Global Kerosene Price Forecast 2026–2027: Market Outlook & Analysis
Published: February 11, 2026 | Last Updated: July 31, 2026
Executive Summary: Kerosene Price Outlook 2026–2027
As of July 30, 2026, the global kerosene market remains in a state of high volatility, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and shifting aviation demand. While global supply fundamentals point toward a potential surplus, regional logistics and refinery constraints continue to maintain a “risk premium” on refined products.
Key Price Projections (Global Weighted Average):
- 2026 Base Case: 0.880.95 per liter (approximately 1,0871,203 per metric ton, depending on density/specifications)
- 2027 Base Case: 0.84–0.90 per liter (approximately 1,0381,139 per metric ton, depending on density/specifications)
- Market Sentiment: Supported by persistent geopolitical risks and robust aviation sector demand.
Kerosene Price Forecast 2026–2027: Scenarios
The price trajectory for kerosene is bifurcated between optimistic supply-side abundance and pessimistic conflict-driven scarcity.
| Period | Bearish Scenario (USD/L) | Base Case (USD/L) | Bullish Scenario (USD/L) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q3–Q4 | $0.72 | $0.88 | $1.15 |
| 2027 Average | $0.70 | $0.84 | $0.98 |
| 2028 Average | $0.73 | $0.80 | $1.10 |
Kerosene Price Scenarios Table (USD/Metric Ton)
| PERIOD | BEARISH SCENARIO (USD/MT) | BASE CASE (USD/MT) | BULLISH SCENARIO (USD/MT) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q3–Q4 | $900 | $1,100 | $1,438 |
| 2027 Average | $875 | $1,050 | $1,225 |
| 2028 Average | $913 | $1,000 | $1,375 |
Note: These forecasts represent a global indicative wholesale-equivalent range for conventional petroleum-derived kerosene/jet-range distillates, not regulated retail pump prices for specific countries.
Kerosene Price per Liter, Gallon, and Barrel
Traders and procurement managers often require unit conversions to compare against local benchmarks. The following table provides an estimated breakdown based on a $0.88/Liter wholesale benchmark.
| Unit | Estimated Price (USD) |
|---|---|
| Per Liter | $0.88 |
| Per Gallon | ~$3.33 |
| Per Barrel (159L) | ~$139.90 |
| Per Metric Ton | Variable based on density/spec |
Key Drivers Shaping Kerosene Prices in 2026
What moves the needle for kerosene pricing? Understanding these levers is essential for stakeholders.
- Geopolitical Risk Premium: Escalating tensions in the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea continue to threaten global logistics. Any disruption in Strait of Hormuz transits acts as a direct multiplier for refined product prices.
- Aviation Demand: Recovery in global air travel is the primary consumer of kerosene-range products. Steady growth in long-haul flights exerts consistent upward pressure on prices.
- Refinery Crack Spreads: Kerosene prices are highly sensitive to “crack spreads” (the difference between the price of crude oil and the refined product). Reduced refinery output—often due to unscheduled maintenance or attacks on energy infrastructure—tightens supply instantly.
- SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) Mandates: Environmental policies like ReFuelEU and UK SAF mandates are driving a structural transition. While scaling SAF is expensive, the blending costs are beginning to set a new, higher floor for aviation-grade kerosene.
Is Kerosene the Same as Jet Fuel or Heating Oil?
A common point of confusion in the market is the overlap between these three products.
- Kerosene: A generic term for a specific boiling range of petroleum distillates.
- Jet Fuel (Jet A/A-1): A refined kerosene-range product with stringent chemical specifications, freezing point requirements, and additives for aviation.
- Heating Oil (No. 2 Fuel Oil): Often used as a market proxy for distillate prices. While chemically similar to kerosene, it is primarily used for residential and commercial heating.
Market Insight: Because these products share refinery capacity, a shortage in heating oil during winter can indirectly drive up prices for kerosene and jet fuel.
Why Kerosene Prices Vary by Country
Global benchmarks do not always reflect local retail costs. If you are searching for prices in India, Pakistan, or Europe, consider these variables:
- Subsidies and Taxes: Countries like India or Pakistan often implement regulated pricing, using subsidies to protect consumers from global price spikes.
- Import Dependency: Countries that must import refined products are more vulnerable to exchange-rate volatility and freight costs.
- Distribution Infrastructure: Remote regions face higher retail costs due to logistics and storage challenges.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What is the kerosene price forecast for 2026?
A: Prices are expected to average between 0.88and0.88 and 0.95 per liter in 2026, assuming moderate supply-chain stability and sustained aviation demand.
Q: Why is the price of kerosene so high?
A: High prices are currently driven by geopolitical supply constraints, increased refining complexity, and strong demand from the aviation sector.
Q: Is kerosene affected by crude oil prices?
A: Yes. Kerosene is a refined petroleum product. While its price is also influenced by refinery margins (crack spreads) and demand, it generally moves in correlation with global crude benchmarks (Brent/WTI).
Q: What is the kerosene price per liter in 2026?
A: Our base case forecast for the 2026 average is approximately $0.88 per liter, though this varies significantly by region and grade.
Forecast Methodology
This forecast utilizes a multi-variable analysis approach, including:
- Crude oil price correlation (Brent/WTI benchmarks).
- Distillate crack spread behavior in primary refining hubs.
- Aviation demand recovery projections.
- Geopolitical risk assessment regarding Persian Gulf logistics.
- Analysis of shifting refining yields toward middle distillates.
Related Market Analyses & Forecasts
To gain a comprehensive understanding of the global energy and petrochemical markets, explore our in-depth forecasts and pricing outlooks for key refined products and raw materials:
- Global Crude Oil Price Forecast: 2026–2030 Trends & Outlook – Analyze the macroeconomic drivers, OPEC+ decisions, and geopolitical factors shaping global benchmarks (Brent & WTI).
- Global Bitumen Price Forecast & Market Trends – Discover pricing trajectories, demand cycles from road infrastructure, and regional supply outlooks for key bitumen grades.
- Global Diesel Price Forecast & Refining Margin Outlook – Read our technical analysis on middle distillate demand, sulfur-content regulations, and global transport fuel dynamics.
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- Global Sulfur Price Forecast – Explore supply-demand trends, fertilizer market drivers, and regional trade flows shaping global sulfur prices.
- Global Base Oil Price Forecast & Lubricant Market Outlook – Get structural pricing data for Group I, II, and III base oils, raw material costs, and automotive demand factors.
Your 2028 forecast regarding Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is intriguing. If environmental mandates push the market towards e-kerosene, do you expect a significant “Green Premium” to be added to the standard kerosene prices for international airlines? Also, how will this affect the Crack Spread for traditional refineries in the Middle East?
Hello Dietrich. The “Green Premium” is almost inevitable in the early stages of the SAF transition. Our analysis at Universal Trades suggests that while SAF reduces demand for fossil-based kerosene, the high cost of carbon-neutral blending will actually keep the blended fuel’s market price elevated. As for the crack spread, refineries that don’t pivot to SAF-ready infrastructure by 2028 might face tighter margins as traditional kerosene becomes a “legacy” product.